India and Pakistan Close to Full-Scale War as Tensions Escalate After Air Strikes

Tensions between India and Pakistan have intensified sharply after India carried out a series of air strikes on Pakistani territory and Pakistan-administered Kashmir. The Indian government described the strikes as a “non-escalatory” response to last month’s deadly militant attack in Pahalgam, in Indian-administered Kashmir, which killed 26 people.

India claims it successfully struck nine locations it identified as “terrorist infrastructure” without targeting Pakistani military facilities. However, Pakistan has rejected this assertion, calling the allegations “baseless” and accusing India of hitting civilian areas instead.

“We resolutely defended our territorial integrity against this act of Indian aggression,” Pakistan’s National Security Committee (NSC) said in a statement. The government also claimed to have shot down five Indian fighter jets—claims that New Delhi has not confirmed or denied.

Retaliatory Measures and Border Shelling

The strikes, conducted at night, were followed by heavy artillery shelling along the Line of Control (LoC), the de facto border. Both countries report casualties.

According to Indian authorities, 10 people have been killed and 32 injured due to the shelling. Pakistan’s figures are higher: 26 dead and 46 injured. Among the injured are civilians, including 18-year-old Manzoor from Uri, who suffered arm injuries from shell splinters during shelling, and Badardin Naik, whose family members sustained serious injuries when a shell hit their home.

“Our house burnt down, but luckily we survived,” Naik told reporters at a hospital in Baramulla.

Political and Diplomatic Responses

India’s Home Minister Amit Shah convened a high-level security meeting with chief ministers and senior officials from multiple border states. Though details were not made public, the meeting underscored the central government’s concern over the deteriorating situation.

Jammu and Kashmir’s Chief Minister Omar Abdullah called for calm but defended India’s response. “Only terror sites in Pakistan were hit, not military areas or civilians,” Abdullah said. “But Pakistan has bombed some areas and our civilians were targeted in it.”

Internationally, France and Russia have urged restraint. French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot acknowledged India’s right to self-defence but urged both sides to avoid further escalation. Russia also expressed “deep concern” and called for peaceful dialogue, stressing that “existing disagreements… be resolved through bilateral means.”

Meanwhile, the UK has urged Pakistan and India to talk to one another over their soaring tensions, saying “nobody wins” from further escalation.

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer said the UK was “engaging urgently with both countries … encouraging dialogue, de-escalation and the protection of civilians”.

Pakistan Engages China, Asserts Right to Respond

Pakistan has briefed China’s ambassador on what it calls India’s “unprovoked violation” of its sovereignty. Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Mohammad Ishaq Dar emphasized the country’s resolve to defend its territorial integrity and accused India of attacking civilians “to satiate short-sighted political objectives.”

Islamabad invoked Article 51 of the UN Charter, affirming its right to self-defence and warning of retaliatory action “at a time, place and manner of its choosing.”

Civilian Impact and Regional Disruption

Civilian life has been heavily disrupted, particularly in border areas. Several airports in northern India have been closed to civilian traffic, including those in Jammu, Srinagar, Amritsar, Leh, and Chandigarh. Flights have been cancelled across multiple states, and roads in cities like Srinagar are nearly deserted.

Many residents near the LoC are sheltering in bunkers or fleeing the area. “They don’t have to run away from here,” Chief Minister Abdullah said, reassuring locals that essential supplies were in place.

Economic Fallout and Historical Context

The conflict poses an economic threat, particularly to Pakistan. Already under a $7 billion IMF bailout programme, the country risks further destabilisation. Ratings agency Moody’s warned that prolonged hostilities could damage Pakistan’s macroeconomic stability and hinder access to external financing.

India’s economy, while larger and more resilient, could also see impacts through increased defence spending.

This latest episode adds to a long history of conflict between the nuclear-armed neighbours. They have fought multiple wars since 1947, many centred on Kashmir. Escalations in 2016 and 2019 over similar militant attacks have brought the region close to full-scale war before.

Mimi Mefo Info