Cameroon Could Earn CFA 180 Billion More From Oil, but SNH Power Struggle Clouds Windfall

Cameroon could earn about CFA 180 billion more from oil than the government expected this year if crude prices remain around $100 a barrel throughout 2026.

The increase is being driven partly by tensions in the Middle East, which have pushed global oil prices higher and raised fears over energy supplies.

For an oil-producing country like Cameroon, higher prices should mean more government revenue. But much of the extra money may not improve the lives of ordinary citizens.

Two major obstacles stand in the way: the rising cost of fuel subsidies and a quiet power struggle over control of the National Hydrocarbons Company, known as SNH.

Why Higher Oil Prices Could Benefit Cameroon

Cameroon exports crude oil and earns more when prices rise on the international market.

If oil remains close to $100 a barrel, the government could collect about CFA 180 billion above the amount included in the 2026 national budget.

That money could, in principle, help finance roads, hospitals, schools, electricity projects and other public services.

But Cameroon’s oil revenue is managed through SNH, one of the most powerful and secretive state institutions in the country.

SNH Controls Cameroon’s Oil Money

The National Hydrocarbons Company is fully owned by the Cameroonian state.

It manages the state’s interests in the oil and gas sector, sells Cameroon’s share of crude oil and transfers large amounts of money to the national treasury.

SNH is one of the biggest contributors to the state budget. This means that whoever controls the company also controls one of the government’s most important sources of revenue.

That is why the question of who will lead SNH has become more than a simple administrative matter.

It is now part of the wider struggle over political power and succession in Cameroon.

Adolphe Moudiki’s Long Absence Raises Questions

SNH has been led for more than 30 years by Adolphe Moudiki.

Now 87, Moudiki is said to be seriously ill and has not been seen publicly for about three years.

In his absence, his wife, Nathalie Moudiki, is widely believed to have taken an influential role in the management of the company.

Her growing influence has reportedly created tensions within the presidency, where powerful figures are seeking greater control over SNH.

Chantal Biya Reportedly Wants Her Son to Lead SNH

According to Jeune Afrique, First Lady Chantal Biya has been pushing for Nathalie Moudiki to be removed and replaced by her son, Franck Hertz Biya.

The report says Chantal Biya asked Ferdinand Ngoh Ngoh, the powerful secretary-general at the presidency, to prepare a decree appointing Franck Hertz Biya as head of SNH.

President Paul Biya, however, reportedly refused to sign the decree.

A partial compromise was reached in 2025 when Franck Hertz Biya was given roles within Tradex subsidiaries in Equatorial Guinea and the Democratic Republic of Congo.

Tradex is a fuel distribution company linked to SNH.

But control of the main oil company remains the bigger prize.

The Battle Over SNH Is Also a Succession Battle

The fight over SNH is not only about oil.

It is also about who will control Cameroon’s wealth and state machinery after President Paul Biya leaves power.

Biya is 93, has remained largely out of public view and has now spent 49 days outside the country.

As questions grow about his health, whereabouts and ability to continue governing, attention has increasingly turned to those around him.

The same figures involved in the struggle for influence at the presidency are also involved in the battle for control of SNH.

They include First Lady Chantal Biya and Ferdinand Ngoh Ngoh.

In Cameroon, political power and control of oil revenue appear to be moving together.

Higher Oil Revenue Does Not Automatically Mean More Money for Citizens

Even without the power struggle, Cameroon may not gain much immediately from the increase in oil prices.

This is because the government subsidises fuel.

When global oil prices rise, the government must spend more money to prevent petrol, diesel and cooking gas prices from increasing sharply at home.

The extra revenue Cameroon earns from selling oil may therefore be largely consumed by the higher cost of maintaining fuel subsidies.

In simple terms, the government earns more from oil exports but also spends more to keep fuel prices under control.

This could leave the country with little real financial gain.

IMF Wants Cameroon to Change Its Fuel Subsidy System

The International Monetary Fund has urged Cameroon to allow fuel prices at the pump to follow changes on the international market more closely.

Under such a system, petrol and diesel prices would rise when global oil prices increase and fall when prices decline.

The IMF says the government should replace broad fuel subsidies with direct support for the poorest households.

Supporters of this approach argue that fuel subsidies are expensive and often benefit wealthier people who consume more fuel.

But removing or reducing subsidies would almost certainly increase transport and food prices.

That would be politically dangerous in a country where many households are already struggling with unemployment, low incomes and the rising cost of living.

CEMAC’s Foreign Currency Reserves Are Falling

Cameroon’s oil situation also has implications for the wider Central African region.

Cameroon is the largest economy in the Central African Economic and Monetary Community, known as CEMAC.

The bloc also includes Gabon, Chad, Equatorial Guinea, the Central African Republic and the Republic of Congo.

These countries share the CFA franc and hold common foreign currency reserves.

Those reserves have been declining, raising concerns about the region’s ability to pay for imports and defend the value of its currency.

At an emergency CEMAC summit held in Brazzaville in January, regional leaders stressed the importance of continuing IMF-supported economic programmes.

Fears of a CFA Franc Devaluation Return

The decline in foreign currency reserves has revived discussion about a possible devaluation of the CFA franc.

A devaluation would reduce the value of the currency against the euro and other international currencies.

For ordinary families, this would make imported goods more expensive.

The prices of fuel, medicine, machinery, food and other products brought in from abroad could rise sharply.

Cameroon’s oil earnings could help strengthen CEMAC’s reserves, but only if the money is properly managed and transferred into the regional financial system.

Cameroon’s Growth Outlook Remains Fragile

The IMF expects Cameroon’s economy to grow by about 3.3% in 2026, with inflation slowing to around 2.9%.

But that forecast depends on several uncertain factors, including global oil prices, government spending, fuel subsidies and political stability.

Oil prices can rise quickly during conflict and fall just as quickly if tensions ease or global demand weakens.

Cameroon may therefore receive an oil windfall this year, but the country cannot depend on high prices forever.

The bigger question is whether the extra money will be managed transparently and used to improve public services—or become another source of conflict among powerful figures at the top of the state.

For ordinary Cameroonians, earning more from oil will mean little if roads remain broken, hospitals remain poorly equipped and families continue to struggle with the cost of food, transport and electricity.