How Separatists Handed Biya another “Impossible” Victory in the North West

Preliminary results from Cameroon’s national vote counting commission show President Paul Biya winning a sweeping victory across the North West Region, a result that has left Anglophones shocked and outraged. The figures suggest that Biya secured tens of thousands of votes in divisions long considered hostile to his rule, including 13,923 in Bui, over 29,000 in Donga-Mantung, and more than 21,303 in Momo. For many observers, these numbers defy logic and population statistics.

The North West has been a center of opposition to Biya’s government since the Anglophone Crisis escalated into armed conflict in 2017. Communities there have endured prolonged shutdowns, attacks on government institutions, and public demonstrations against the regime. In the month leading up to the October 12 elections, separatist groups enforced a strict, month-long lockdown aimed at preventing voting. This action significantly reduced voter turnout, leaving many polling stations nearly empty and communities effectively cut off from the electoral process.

It is in this context that the results appear particularly suspicious. As predicted by MMI, the separatist-imposed lockdown, by keeping ordinary citizens away from the polls, created an environment that the CPDM could easily exploit to manipulate results. With fewer voters present and reduced oversight, the regime had room to inflate numbers and fabricate tallies that portrayed overwhelming support for Biya in areas where real participation was minimal.

Opposition candidate Issa Tchiroma Bakary has condemned the results as “impossible” and “magically concocted,” highlighting the enormous gap between official figures and the reality on the ground. Efforts by opposition figures, including Tchiroma, Osih Joshua, and Cabral Libii, to encourage participation were largely neutralized by the lockdown, leaving the electoral process vulnerable to manipulation.

For Anglophone communities, the results are both infuriating and unsurprising. Over decades, the CPDM has repeatedly leveraged circumstances such as low turnout, restricted access, and administrative control to secure victories across Cameroon, often in defiance of public sentiment. The North West figures, produced under conditions of intimidation and disruption, appear to continue this troubling pattern.

The one-month separatist lockdown, while intended to protest the regime, inadvertently cleared the path for Biya’s “victory” in the North West, showing how disruptions to the electoral process can be exploited by those in power. Analysts warn that such outcomes deepen mistrust in Cameroon’s electoral system and widen the political divide between the Anglophone regions and the central government.

Cameroonians, particularly in the North West, are now left questioning whether their votes ever truly count, or whether the CPDM’s control over the process renders genuine democracy impossible.

MMI News