After a 43-day absence from the public eye and 49 days out of the country, Cameroon’s President Paul Biya has returned, yet no official explanation has been provided regarding his extended stay in Geneva, Switzerland. The only communication to the public was that Biya had left Cameroon on September 2 to attend the China-Africa Summit. After the summit concluded on September 8, there was no word on his whereabouts until his return this past Monday. Given the lack of transparency, some observers are speculating whether Biya used this time to plan a major cabinet reshuffle.
MMI Analyzes Biya’s Cabinet Reshuffle Patterns
Following Biya’s return, MMI investigated the president’s history of reshuffling his cabinet. An analysis of his past actions reveals that Biya typically makes changes to his government under two key conditions: before or after a presidential election, or after prolonged stays abroad, although the latter is less frequent.
Between 2011 and 2019, Biya reshuffled his cabinet five times. For example, in October 2011, just before his reelection, he made significant changes. After securing another term, Biya once again reshuffled the cabinet on December 11 of that year.
A similar pattern occurred in 2015, when Biya announced a new cabinet in October. In 2018, after spending an extended period abroad, Biya returned in March and promptly made another reshuffle. Later that year, following his reelection, he repeated the process in January 2019. Since then, however, Biya has not made any significant changes to his government.
Is Another on the Horizon?
Given Biya’s history, it is reasonable to anticipate that another cabinet reshuffle may be imminent. Two factors support this theory: first, his recent long trip abroad, and second, the approaching presidential election scheduled for next year.
If past reshuffles offer any insight, Biya tends to act in October, March, January, or December. As such, it is possible that the president will reorganize his cabinet by December 2024 or early 2025, in line with his usual schedule. Observers are keeping a close watch to see if the president will indeed take this opportunity to refresh his administration.
