Cameroon has been placed in 9th position out of 162 nations on the 2019 early warning project.
Released moments ago, the statistical model estimates that there is a 7.6%, or approximately 1 in 13, chance of a new mass killing beginning in Cameroon in 2019 or 2020.
Notable for its consistently rising risk, Cameroon has moved from 36th (2017–18) to 17th (2018–19) to 9th place with the Anglophone crisis playing a major role.
The ranking also cites the Boko Haram insurgency that has killed thousands and displaced more than 200,000 since it began in 2013.
“According to our model, the factors that account for Cameroon’s current risk estimate include lack of freedom of movement for men, the country’s regime type (anocracy), ongoing armed conflict between the state and Ambazonia insurgents, its high infant mortality rate, and its degree of ethnic fractionalization” the Early Warning Project noted.
Cameroon on the ranking is the 6th African Nation placed that high on the index, coming after the likes of Sudan, DR Congo, Somalia, Egypt and South Sudan.
Since the escalation of the Anglophone Crisis that has killed hundreds, left thousands stranded and caused immense loss of property, national and International rights groups have called for dialogue to no avail, warning that the conflict has the potential of becoming a full blown civil war.
Released on this year’s International Day for Human Rights the model forecasts new mass killings with a different target group or perpetrator, in addition to ongoing mass killing.
The Early Warning Project is a joint initiative of the Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide of the United States Holocaust Memorial Museum, and the Dickey Center for International Understanding at Dartmouth College.
